ABIO10 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/070900Z-071800ZMAR2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.6S 87.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 88.0E, APPROXIMATELY 548 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 
MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, A MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
CHANNEL ALOFT, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A 
SOUTHWESTERN TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ECMWF ENSEMBLE BEING THE 
MOST AGGRESSIVE OVERALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.8S 56.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 53.6E, APPROXIMATELY 534 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC ROTATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION 
BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-
29C). GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE 99S WILL 
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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