ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/061800Z-
071800ZMAR2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.6S 
87.8E, APPROXIMATELY 472 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF 
CYCLONIC ROTATION WITH CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED 
LLCC. A 061539Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS FURTHER HIGHLIGHTS THE BROAD NATURE OF 
98S WITH WEAK OVERALL WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE WITH THE SYSTEM SITTING UNDER STRONG 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS, AND VERY WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
THIS IS OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28C). DESPITE THE 
CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, GLOBAL MODELS ARE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE 
AND CONSISTENT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF 98S OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.8S 
56.8E, APPROXIMATELY 505 NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC 
ROTATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (15-20KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, RELATIVELY WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THE 99S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 
48-72 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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