ABPW10 PGTW 280600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/280600ZFEB2025-010600ZMAR2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280151ZFEB2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280152ZFEB2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 28FEB25 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 19.1S 155.5E, APPROXIMATELY 528 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 130 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 280300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 28FEB25 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (SERU) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 23.0S 172.5E, APPROXIMATELY 359 NM EAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. 
SEE REF B (WTPS33 PGTW 280300) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 21P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
23.0S 172.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.0S 172.5E, APPROXIMATELY 359 NM 
EAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A 
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL 
AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 272132Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD CYCLONIC 
TURNING WITH CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE EAST. A 272141Z ASCAT 
METOP-C PASS FURTHER EMPHASIZES THE ELONGATED FRONTAL NATURE OF 21P 
WITH HIGHER WINDS (30-35KTS) ONLY PARTIALLY WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-
DEFINED CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE 
WITH THE CYCLONE CURRENTLY IN AN OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-
30KTS), OFFSET BY POOR POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND RELATIVELY WARM (27-28C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE 
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM 21P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO COOLER (24-26C) 
WATERS, WITH A BROAD AND ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. FOR HAZARDS AND 
WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND 
SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR TRANSITION INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 38 TO 43 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. SEE REF B 
(WTPS33 PGTW 280300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
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