ABPW10 PGTW 260600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/260600Z-270600ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260151ZFEB2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260152ZFEB2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 26FEB25 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.8S 155.0E, APPROXIMATELY 306 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF WILLIS 
ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 260300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 26FEB25 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 21P (SERU) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 19.6S 170.3E, APPROXIMATELY 161 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT VILA, 
VANUATU, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS33 PGTW 260300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (SS 19P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 26.9S 
175.2W, APPROXIMATELY 348 NM SOUTH OF TONGA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY 
CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING 
BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION THAT IS 
BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A NOW FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 260133Z AMSR2 WIND SPEED 7KM PASS SHOWS A BELT OF 
35 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING ALONG THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL 
TRANSITION DEFINED BY A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST BEING 
ADVECTED OVER THE SYSTEM, STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT, HIGH (30-35 KNOT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT, AND A SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SITTING BELOW 
25 C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A 
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH A BROAD AND ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD OVER THE 
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 
TO 40 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
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