ABIO10 PGTW 251530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/251530Z-251800ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251353ZFEB2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250752ZFEB2025//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242152ZFEB2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 25FEB25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (GARANCE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 18.3S 51.9E, APPROXIMATELY 233 NM NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, AND HAD 
TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 251500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 25FEB25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (BIANCA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 21.9S 102.1E, APPROXIMATELY 667 NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 125 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 250900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.0S 51.5E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE 
PARA. 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
22.6S 38.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.9S 37.7E, APPROXIMATELY 151 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEM. A 242237Z AMSR2 GW1 
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. A RECENT OBSERVATION FROM 
EUROPA ISLAND AT 241700Z REPORTS NORTHERLY WINDS AT 30 KNOTS AND A SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-
15 KNOTS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C AND MODERATE 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97S IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE FURTHER 
CONSOLIDATION WITH A SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF C (WTXS21 PGTW 242200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
WARNING STATUS.//
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