ABIO10 PGTW 250200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/250200Z-251800ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241952ZFEB2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250153ZFEB2025//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242152ZFEB2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REFS B AND C ARE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24FEB25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (BIANCA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 20.2S 102.9E, APPROXIMATELY 591 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS 
ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 95 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 115 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 242100) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
21.8S 38.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.6S 38.3E, APPROXIMATELY 116 NM 
WEST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) REVEALS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP, 
FLARING CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEM. A 242237Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. A RECENT OBSERVATION FROM 
EUROPA ISLAND AT 241700Z REPORTS NORTHERLY WINDS AT 30 KNOTS AND A 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C 
AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS 
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97S IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE FURTHER 
CONSOLIDATION WITH A SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS22 PGTW 250200) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.0S 51.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2S 51.6E, APPROXIMATELY 282 NM 
NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC), WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 241725Z ASCAT 
METOP-B IMAGE REVEALS 35 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. 
HOWEVER, THE 35 KNOT WIND BARS ARE FLAGGED IN THE QC VERSION OF THE 
IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD 
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST) OF 29-30 C. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO 
AGREE, FORECASTING GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 97S OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS WITH A GENERALLY EASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
SEE REF C (WTXS21 PGTW 242200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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