ABIO10 PGTW 242200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/242200Z-251800ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241952ZFEB2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242152ZFEB2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24FEB25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (BIANCA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 20.2S 102.9E, APPROXIMATELY 591 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS 
ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 95 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 115 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 242100) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
21.8S 38.6EE IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.8S 38.6E, APPROXIMATELY 103 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 241142Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A 
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION AND FRAGMENTED BANDING. A 241700Z 
RECENT OBSERVATION FROM EUROPA ISLAND IS REPORTING NORTHERLY WINDS OF 
22 KNOTS AND SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS) OF 5-10 KNOTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. BOTH DETERMINISTIC 
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE, FORECASTING GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT 
OF INVEST 95S OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE GFS MODEL IS THE 
MOST AGGRESSIVE, WITH GFS, ECMWF, AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES 
PREDICTING DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 30-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 992 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.0S 51.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2S 51.6E, APPROXIMATELY 282 NM 
NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC), WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 241725Z ASCAT 
METOP-B IMAGE REVEALS 35 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. 
HOWEVER, THE 35 KNOT WIND BARS ARE FLAGGED IN THE QC VERSION OF THE 
IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD 
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST) OF 29-30 C. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO 
AGREE, FORECASTING GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 97S OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS WITH A GENERALLY EASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 242200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2) TO 
HIGH.//
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