WTXS22 PGTW 250200 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95S)// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242152ZFEB25// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 242200)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 075 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.5S 38.0E TO 25.4S 40.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 250200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 22.6S 38.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.8S 38.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.6S 38.3E, APPROXIMATELY 116 NM WEST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEM. A 242237Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. A RECENT OBSERVATION FROM EUROPA ISLAND AT 241700Z REPORTS NORTHERLY WINDS AT 30 KNOTS AND A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97S IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE FURTHER CONSOLIDATION WITH A SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 260200Z. 4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 18.2S 51.6E.// NNNN