WTXS21 PGTW 242200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.2S 51.3E TO 17.4S 55.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 242200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.2S 51.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.0S 51.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2S 51.6E, APPROXIMATELY
282 NM NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC), WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 241725Z ASCAT 
METOP-B IMAGE REVEALS 35 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. 
HOWEVER, THE 35 KNOT WIND BARS ARE FLAGGED IN THE QC VERSION OF THE 
IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD 
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) 
OF 29-30 C. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE, 
FORECASTING GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 97S OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
WITH A GENERALLY EASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
252200Z.//
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