ABIO10 PGTW 241800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/241800Z-251800ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240752ZFEB2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24FEB25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (BIANCA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 19.0S 103.6E, APPROXIMATELY 562 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS 
ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 240900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) IS LOCATED NEAR 21.8S 
38.6E, APPROXIMATELY 103 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 241142Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION AND FRAGMENTED 
BANDING. A 241700Z RECENT OBSERVATION FROM EUROPA ISLAND IS REPORTING 
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 22 KNOTS AND SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 5-10 KNOTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. 
BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE, FORECASTING 
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 95S OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE 
GFS MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, WITH GFS, ECMWF, AND THEIR RESPECTIVE 
ENSEMBLES PREDICTING DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 30-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 992 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) IS LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 
51.5E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION AT ITS CENTER. A 
241700Z RECENT OBSERVATION FROM TOAMASINA AMBALAMANASY AIRPORT (FMMT) 
IN MADAGASCAR IS REPORTING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS 
AND A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1011 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
MODERATE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C, OFFSET BY 
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 25-30 KNOTS. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW MODERATE AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT, 
WITH INVEST 97S EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE SLOW PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE GFS MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, FORECASTING 
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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