ABIO10 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/241500Z-241800ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240752ZFEB2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24FEB25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (BIANCA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 19.0S 103.6E, APPROXIMATELY 562 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS 
ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 240900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 21.8S 
38.6E, APPROXIMATELY 107 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241142Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH FORMATIVE 
BANDING ALONG THE NORTH EASTERN PERIPHERY AND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED 
LLCC. A 240637Z 50KM WINDS ASCAT METOP-B PASS DEPICT THE MOSTLY 
SYMMETRICAL NATURE OF 95S WITH HIGHER WINDS (20-25KTS) WRAPPING TOWARD 
THE CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON EUROPA ISLAND ARE ALSO OBSERVING A 
RAPID DROP IN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 6MB IN 6 HOURS FURTHER SUPPORTING 
THE INTENSIFICATION OF 95S. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS FOR THE SYSTEM ARE 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPS AND GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO IN CONCURRENCE THAT 95S WILL 
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK SOUTH EASTERLY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 992 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.0S 
51.5E, APPROXIMATELY 296 NM NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241005Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE 
BANDING ALONG THE NORTH EASTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY AND A 
CONSOLIDATING  LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS FOR THE SYSTEM ARE 
MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND POOR POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY WARM 
(28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONFIDENT THAT 97S WILL 
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK SOUTH EASTERLY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B(1) AND 2.B(2) 
TO MEDIUM.//
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