WTPS21 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96P) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231451ZFEB2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.7S 170.6E TO 17.5S 175.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 241200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.8S 170.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.5S 170.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 170.8E, APPROXIMATELY 
401 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICT A CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CYCLIC CONVECTION 
BUILDING OVER A FULLY OBSCURED LLCC AND FORMATIVE BANDING LOCATED 
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY . A 241039Z ASCAT METOP B PASS INDICATE 
STRONG WINDS (25-30) WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF A VERY SYMMETRICAL 
WIND FIELD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-29C), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE CONFIDENT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 96P WILL CONTINUE TO 
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 231500). 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
251500Z.
//
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