ABPW10 PGTW 240600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/240600Z-250600ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240151ZFEB2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231951ZFEB2025//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231451ZFEB2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24FEB25 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.0S 154.0E, APPROXIMATELY 818 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST- NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 240300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 23FEB25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (RAE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 16.6S 179.0W, APPROXIMATELY 174 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUVA FIJI, 
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS32 PGTW 232100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.9S 168.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 169.4E, APPROXIMATELY 523 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) AND A 240151Z 89 GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING 
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A FULLY OBSCURED 
LLCC AND FORMATIVE BANDING LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY . A 
232208Z ASCAT METOP C PASS INDICATE STRONG WINDS (25-30) WRAPPING INTO 
THE CENTER OF A MORE SYMMETRICAL WIND FIELD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS 
ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-
29C), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONFIDENT THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION 96P WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPS21 PGTW 231500) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
26.0S 166.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28.1S 165.7W, APPROXIMATELY 665 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF TONGA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A 
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL 
AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTI SPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND 232113Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF 
CIRCULATION WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH FLARING CONVECTION ISOLATED TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P IS 
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH COOL (23-25C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE TO HIGH (25-30KNOT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, AND MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT 92P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK    SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW.  
JTWC WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR INVEST 92P FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL 
TRANSITION. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER 
CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO 
DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS. //
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