WTPS21 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6S 168.7E TO 16.3S 172.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 231200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.7S 168.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.4S 168.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 168.8E, APPROXIMATELY 594 NM NORTHWEST 
OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 230923Z 89 GHZ 
GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF DENSE, PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING 
OVER A MOSTLY OBSCURED LLCC. A 231015Z PARTIAL ASCAT METOP – C PASS INDICATE 
STRONGER WINDS (25-30) BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER WITH SMALLER MESO-VORTICES 
ON THE SOUTH WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-29C), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW TO 
MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONFIDENT THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION 96P WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED 
BY 241500Z.
//
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