ABIO10 PGTW 230200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/230200Z-231800ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230151ZFEB2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.7S 109.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 108.6E, APPROXIMATELY 476 NM 
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND 
A GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDING 
TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC, THOUGH THE LLCC REMAINS DISPLACED A BIT TO THE 
EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS. A 221358Z ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETERY PASS 
REVEALS 25-30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, WITH NORTH TO 
SOUTHEASTERLY 20-25 KNOT WIND FIELDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC 
AND CONFIRMS THE FACT THAT THE LLCC IS NOT VERTICALLY ALIGNED WITH THE 
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 99S IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (28-29C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF 99S. GFS IS THE PRIMARY MODEL SHOWING QUICK 
CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE GFS AND ECMWF 
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK 
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL 
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 230200) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
NNNN