ABPW10 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/220900Z-230600ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220751ZFEB2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 22FEB25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 15.4S 149.7E, APPROXIMATELY 242 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 220900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.9S 149.5W IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE 
PARA. 2. A. (1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.6S 178.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 177.3W, APPROXIMATELY 393 NM 
WEST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
220203Z 8GHZ AMSR2 PASS DEPICT A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION IN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 94P IS IN 
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (28-29C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH 
THE POTENTIAL RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94P WILL TRACK IN 
A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
21.2S 166.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.7S 167.2W, APPROXIMATELY 459 NM 
EAST OF TONGA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL 
CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND 
MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF ROTATION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BEGINNING TO UNDERGO A SUBTROPICAL 
TRANSITION. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE LLCC HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE 
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE 
LLCC. A 211929Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS 35-40 KNOT WINDS 
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE EAST, CONSISTENT WITH AN EARLIER SMAP 
PASS SHOWING A SIMILAR WIND FIELD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
THAT INVEST 92P IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 
WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KNOT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, AS THIS SYSTEM 
CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH COOLER 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, AS WELL AS 
ENTERING AN AREA OF INCREASED WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30-40 KNOTS AND 
STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92P 
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW.  JTWC WILL 
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR INVEST 92P FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL 
TRANSITION. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER 
CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO 
DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B. (1) TO
WARNING STATUS.//
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