ABPW10 PGTW 220600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/220600Z-230600ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211921ZFEB2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.8S 149.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 149.W, APPROXIMATELY 261 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN 
THE VICINITY AND JUST EAST OF THE LLCC. A PARTIAL 212250Z ASCAT METOP-B 
SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS STRONG 25-30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE 
LLCC AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WILLIS ISLAND (APPROXIMATELY 85NM TO 
THE SOUTH) INDICATE SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS OF 30 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 93P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW FLOWING SOUTH INTO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY 
EASTWARD WHILE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. BOTH THE 
GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST TRACK OF 93P THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS22 PGTW 211930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.6S 178.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 178.5W, APPROXIMATELY 451 NM 
WEST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. A 
212201Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS 20-25KNOT WINDS BEGINNING 
TO WRAP MORE IN TO THE LLCC, WITH WIND FIELDS OF 25-30 KNOTS TO THE 
NORTH AND SOUTH APPROXIMATELY 100NM FROM THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 94P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (LESS 
THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND 
GENERAL SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GFS AND ECMWF 
ENSEMBLES ARE BOTH IN SLIGHT AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94P WILL TRACK IN A 
GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.2S 166.7W, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTHEAST OF 
NIUE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, 
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE 
FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA 
OF ROTATION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) BEGINNING TO UNDERGO A SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. OVER THE PAST 12 
HOURS, THE LLCC HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF 
CONVECTION TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. A 211929Z ASCAT-B 
SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS 35-40 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC 
FROM THE EAST, CONSISTENT WITH AN EARLIER SMAP PASS SHOWING A SIMILAR 
WIND FIELD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P IS 
CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (27-28C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK TO 
THE SOUTHEAST IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, AS WELL AS ENTERING AN AREA 
OF INCREASED WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30-40 KNOTS AND STRONG WESTERLIES 
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL CONTINUE TO 
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW.  JTWC WILL CONTINUE TO 
CLOSELY MONITOR INVEST 92P FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL TRANSITION. FOR 
HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH 
WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST 
AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR TRANSITION TO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. SEE 
REF B (WTPS21 PGTW 220200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
     (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
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