WTPS21 PGTW 220200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/212051ZFEB2025//
AMPN/ REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 212100). THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.8S 166.5W IS NOW LOCATED 21.2S 
166.7W, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTHEAST OF NIUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF ROTATION WITH A PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BEGINNING TO UNDERGO A 
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE LLCC HAS MOVED AWAY 
FROM THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST 
OF THE LLCC. A 211929Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS 35-40 KNOT 
WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE EAST, CONSISTENT WITH AN EARLIER 
SMAP PASS SHOWING A SIMILAR WIND FIELD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
THAT INVEST 92P IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 
WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KNOT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, AS THIS SYSTEM 
CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH COOLER 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, AS WELL AS 
ENTERING AN AREA OF INCREASED WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30-40 KNOTS AND 
STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92P 
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW. JTWC WILL 
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR INVEST 92P FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL TRANSITION. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW, AND THE SYSTEM IS 
DESIGNATED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE.// 
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