ABPW10 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/212100Z-220600ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PERAL HARBOR HI/211921ZFEB2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/212051ZFEB2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.8S 149.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 149.8E, APPROXIMATELY 261 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN 
THE VICINITY AND JUST EAST OF THE LLCC. A PARTIAL 211822Z ASCAT METOP-B 
SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS STRONG 25-30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE 
LLCC AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WILLIS ISLAND (APPROXIMATELY 85NM TO 
THE SOUTH) INDICATE SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS OF 30 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 93P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW FLOWING SOUTH INTO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY 
EASTWARD WHILE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. BOTH THE 
GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST TRACK OF 93P THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS22 PGTW 211930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.5S 167.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.8S 166.5W, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF NIUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
AN ELONGATED ROTATION WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) AT THE HEAD OF A COMMA-SHAPED VORTEX. DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS, 
MOSTLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH SOME MORE RECENT 
DEVELOPING ACTIVITY NEAR THE LLCC.  A PARTIAL 210930Z ASCAT-C 
SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS 30-40 KNOT NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN AN 
EXTENSIVE BAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LLCC, WITHIN THE ENHANCED 
GRADIENT FLOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SPCZ. WEAKER WINDS OF 20-30 
KNOTS ARE SEEN WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE 
CIRCULATION.  PHASE CLASSIFICATION WORKSHEETS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS A 
HYBRID TYPE SYSTEM, WITH CHARACTERISTICS OF BOTH A TROPICAL AND 
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BUT IS ANALYZED CURRENTLY AS MORE TROPICAL IN 
NATURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (28-29*C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, AND POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 92P 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO IN STRONG 
AGREEMENT WITH THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WELL.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW 212100) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.2S 179.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 178.1W, APPROXIMATELY 434 NM 
WEST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION 
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE SOUTH 
PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MOVING FORWARD WITH THE WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW BEING THE MAIN HINDRANCE CURRENTLY WORKING AGAINST THE 
SYSTEM. MEANWHILE, THE WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND 
MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE HELPING DEVELOP 94P. THE 
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHERN TRACK, 
WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE HAVING GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE 
NORTH WITHIN 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
18 TO 23 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 
33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED TCFA IN PARA. 2.B.(2).//
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