WTPS21 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/202051ZFEB2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.1S 169.4W TO 23.5S 165.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 211800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.8S 166.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOSULY LOCATED NEAR 
19.5S 167.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.8S 166.5W APPROXIMATELY 220 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF NIUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
AN ELONGATED ROTATION WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) AT THE HEAD OF A COMMA-SHAPED VORTEX. DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS, 
MOSTLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH SOME MORE RECENT 
DEVELOPING ACTIVITY NEAR THE LLCC. A PARTIAL 210930Z ASCAT-C 
SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS 30-40 KNOT NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN AN 
EXTENSIVE BAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LLCC, WITHIN THE ENHANCED 
GRADIENT FLOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SPCZ. WEAKER WINDS OF 20-30 
KNOTS ARE SEEN WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE 
CIRCULATION. PHASE CLASSIFICATION WORKSHEETS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS A 
HYBRID TYPE SYSTEM, WITH CHARACTERISTICS OF BOTH A TROPICAL AND 
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BUT IS ANALYZED CURRENTLY AS MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND 
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 92P OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO IN STRONG AGREEMENT 
WITH THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WELL. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A 
(WTPS21 PGTW 202100).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
222100Z.//
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