ABPW10 PGTW 211930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/211930Z-220600ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211921ZFEB2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/202051ZFEB2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.8S 149.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 149.8E, APPROXIMATELY 261 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY 
AND JUST EAST OF THE LLCC. A PARTIAL 211822Z ASCAT METOP-B 
SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS STRONG 25-30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE 
LLCC AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WILLIS ISLAND (APPROXIMATELY 85NM TO 
THE SOUTH) INDICATE SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS OF 30 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 93P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW FLOWING SOUTH INTO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY 
EASTWARD WHILE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. BOTH THE 
GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST TRACK OF 93P THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS22 PGTW 211930) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.2S 179.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 178.1W, APPROXIMATELY 434 NM 
WEST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION 
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE SOUTH 
PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MOVING FORWARD WITH THE WEAK UPPER 
LEVEL OUTFLOW BEING THE MAIN HINDRANCE CURRENTLY WORKING AGAINST THE 
SYSTEM. MEANWHILE, THE WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND 
MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE HELPING DEVELOP 94P. THE 
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHERN TRACK, 
WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE HAVING GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE 
NORTH WITHIN 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.5S 167.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.8S 166.5W, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF NIUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS INTENSIFYING AND INCREASINGLY CURVED CONVECTION OBSCURING THE 
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) NORTHEAST OF NIUE, ALONG THE 
SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PORTRAYING STRONG DEVELOPMENT AND 
A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW 202100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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