WTPS22 PGTW 211930 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93P)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9S 149.5E TO 14.1S 153.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 211800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 149.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 148.6W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 149.8E, APPROXIMATELY 262 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY AND JUST EAST OF THE LLCC. A PARTIAL 211822Z ASCAT METOP-B SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS STRONG 25-30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WILLIS ISLAND (APPROXIMATELY 85NM TO THE SOUTH) INDICATE SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS OF 30 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 93P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW FLOWING SOUTH INTO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD WHILE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EAST- SOUTHEAST TRACK OF 93P THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 221930Z.// NNNN