ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/211800Z-
221800ZFEB2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.3S 121.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 115.3E, APPROXIMATELY 436 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRAILIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE 
OBSCURED LOWLEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 201345Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS ALSO 
REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LLC, WITH OBSERVED 20-25 KNOTS WITHIN THE 
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. HOWEVER, 
ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS RELATIVELY FAVORABLE, THE DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE PORTRAYING WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS, WITH AN EXPECTED SOUTHWEST TRACK AND INTENSITIES RANGING FROM 25-
30 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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