ABPW10 PGTW 210600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/202051ZFEB2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.4S 169.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5S 168.0W, APPROXIMATELY 122 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NIUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS INTENSIFYING AND INCREASINGLY CURVED CONVECTION OBSCURING THE 
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) NORTHEAST OF NIUE, ALONG THE 
SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PORTRAYING 
STRONG DEVELOPMENT AND A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 202100) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.5S 148.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 148.6W, APPROXIMATELY 229 NM 
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH 
FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. 
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT OVERALL IN TERMS OF INTENSITY AND A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER 
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.9S 
178.8W, APPROXIMATELY 613 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN 
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION JUST 
NORTH OF THE CENTER BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE SOUTH PACIFIC 
CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MOVING FORWARD WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW 
BEING THE MAIN HINDRANCE CURRENTLY WORKING AGAINST THE SYSTEM. 
MEANWHILE, THE WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE 
(20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE HELPING DEVELOP 94P. THE GLOBAL 
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHERN TRACK, WITH GFS 
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE HAVING GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE NORTH 
WITHIN 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 
TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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