ABPW10 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/202100Z-210600ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/202051ZFEB2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.2S 171.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 169.1W, APPROXIMATELY 61 NM 
NORTHEAST OF NIUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS INTENSIFYING AND INCREASINGLY CURVED CONVECTION OBSCURING THE 
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) NORTHEAST OF NIUE, ALONG 
THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PORTRAYING 
STRONG DEVELOPMENT AND A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 
202100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.0S 145.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 148.4W, APPROXIMATELY 191 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED AND 
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE EQUATORWARD EDGE OF A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED LOW-
LEVEL LINE OF CONVERGENCE. A PARTIAL 201204Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS 
REVEALS AN OPEN SURFACE TROUGH WITH ENHANCED WINDS IN THE WESTERN 
QUADRANT, RANGING FROM 20-25 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
MODERATE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS OVERALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL DEVELOPMENT 
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE 
MODEL, INDICATING AN INCREASE IN SURFACE INTENSITIES TO 35 KTS WITHIN 
24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
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