WTPS21 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.1S 169.4W TO 23.5S 165.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 202100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.4S 169.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.2S 171.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 169.1W, APPROXIMATELY 61 NM 
NORTHEAST OF NIUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 
INTENSIFYING AND INCREASINGLY CURVED CONVECTION OBSCURING THE 
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) NORTHEAST OF NIUE, ALONG THE 
SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PORTRAYING STRONG DEVELOPMENT AND A 
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
212100Z.//
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