ABPW10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/201800Z-210600ZFEB2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.0S 172.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 171.4W, APPROXIMATELY 187 NM 
SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE 
ZONE (SPCZ). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM 
(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 
WITH THE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 92P OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS 
WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, PORTRAYING A WELL-DEFINED 
CIRCULATION WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BY TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM 
CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD 
TRACK OF INVEST 92P OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.0S 145.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 148.4W, APPROXIMATELY 191 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED AND 
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE EQUATORWARD EDGE OF A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED LOW-
LEVEL LINE OF CONVERGENCE. A PARTIAL 201204Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS 
REVEALS AN OPEN SURFACE TROUGH WITH ENHANCED WINDS IN THE WESTERN 
QUADRANT, RANGING FROM 20-25 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
MODERATE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, 
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS OVERALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL DEVELOPMENT 
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE 
MODEL, INDICATING AN INCREASE IN SURFACE INTENSITIES TO 35 KTS WITHIN 
24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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