ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/201800Z-211800ZFEB2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.3S 121.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 119.2E, APPROXIMATELY 212 NM 
NORTH OF ROWLEY SHOALS ATOLL. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE OBSCURED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 201345Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS ALSO REVEALS A 
CONSOLIDATING LLC, WITH OBSERVED 20-25 KNOTS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN AND 
WESTERN QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. HOWEVER, ALTHOUGH THE 
ENVIRONMENT IS RELATIVELY FAVORABLE, THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS ARE PORTRAYING WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, WITH 
AN EXPECTED SOUTHWEST TRACK AND INTENSITIES RANGING FROM 25-30 KNOTS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN