ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZFEB2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.0S 172.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 171.4W, APPROXIMATELY 187 NM 
SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE 
(SPCZ). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM 
(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 
WITH THE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 92P OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS 
WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, PORTRAYING A WELL-DEFINED 
CIRCULATION WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BY TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM 
CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK 
OF INVEST 92P OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.0S 145.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S 145.3W, APPROXIMATELY 185 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT MORESBY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH 
FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
MOVING FORWARD WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW STEADY 
MODEL DEVELOPMENT SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH GFS CURRENTLY BEING THE MOST 
AGGRESSIVE, OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS 93P MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE 
AUSTRALIAN COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN