ABPW10 PGTW 200200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/200200Z-200600ZFEB2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.2S 168.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0S 172.0W, APPROXIMATELY 179 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE EQUATORWARD EDGE 
OF THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ) DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) 
OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 
WITH THE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 92P, HOWEVER GFS IS THE MOST 
AGGRESSIVE, PORTRAYING A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION BY TAU 48 AS THE 
SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK 
OF INVEST 92P OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.7S 166.6W HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM. 
DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2).//
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