ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/191800Z-201800ZFEB2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.4S 127.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 127.4E, APPROXIMATELY 201 NM 
NORTH OF ADELE ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 191343Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT A SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PULSING CONVECTION 
AROUND BROAD SURFACE TURNING AND ASSOCIATED FRAGMENTED BANDING ALONG 
THE PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, WEAK 
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST) OF 29-30 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE NOT IN 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH 
MOST NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS PORTRAYING WEAK, TO SLOW MODEL 
DEVELOPMENT. GFS AND ITS ASSOCIATED PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE 
CHARACTERIZES A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN 48 HOURS, HOWEVER, ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE, ECENS, BOTH FORECAST 
99S TO REACH CYCLOGENESIS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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