ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/191800Z-201800ZFEB2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.4S 127.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 127.4E, APPROXIMATELY 201 NM 
NORTH OF ADELE ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 191343Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT 
A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PULSING 
CONVECTION AROUND BROAD SURFACE TURNING AND ASSOCIATED FRAGMENTED 
BANDING ALONG THE PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, WEAK EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH MOST NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS 
PORTRAYING WEAK, TO SLOW MODEL DEVELOPMENT. GFS AND ITS ASSOCIATED 
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE CHARACTERIZES A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT 
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HOURS, HOWEVER, ECMWF AND ITS 
ENSEMBLE, ECENS, BOTH FORECAST 99S TO REACH CYCLOGENESIS WITHIN THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 14S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
30.2S 75.2E, APPROXIMATELY 1118 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, 
MAURITIUS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL 
CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND 
MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A SLOWLY WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WITH 
FLARING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST, EXPOSING 
THE FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL TRANSITION 
DEFINED BY A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE MID-
LEVELS, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-25, AND COOL 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF LESS THAN 26 C. DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC 14S WILL 
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A BROAD AND ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THEREAFTER. FOR HAZARDS 
AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS 
AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 38 TO 40 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
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