ABPW10 PGTW 190600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/190600Z-200600ZFEB2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.3S 177.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 176.3W, APPROXIMATELY 338 NM 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) AND A 190132Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS A BROAD AREA 
OF POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH CYCLING CONVECTION NORTHWEST AND 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE ASSESSED LLCC. THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE 
ZONE, EXTENDING FROM THE CORAL SEA TO FRENCH POLYNESIA, IS AIDING IN 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 92P. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 
INVEST 92P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE 
TO VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15 
TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW BUT STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF 
INVEST 92P. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS 
WELL WITH THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK 
OF INVEST 92P OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.2S 168.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7S 166.6W, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A WAVE LIKE FEATURE WITH A POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION 
RIDING LONG THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). A 190042Z 
ASCAT METOP-B SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD OF 
20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION AND 10-15 KNOTS TO 
THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 98P IS IN A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM 
(28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER, IS OFFSET BY CONVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 98P. 
THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98P WILL 
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS SHOWING 
NO SIGNS OF POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN