ABPW10 PGTW 190130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/190130Z-190600ZFEB2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.0S 174.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7S 166.6W, APPROXIMATELY 306 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A WAVE LIKE FEATURE WITH A POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION RIDING 
LONG THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). A 190042Z ASCAT METOP-
B SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD OF 20-25 KNOT 
WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION AND 10-15 KNOTS TO THE SOUTH. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 98P IS IN A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (28-29C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
HOWEVER, IS OFFSET BY CONVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN 
AGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 98P. THE GFS AND 
ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98P WILL CONTINUE TO 
TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF 
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.3S 
176.3W, APPROXIMATELY 357 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF ILL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION TO THE 
NORTHWEST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE ASSESSED LLCC. A 190022Z ASCAT 
METOP-B SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS A WIND FIELD OF STRONG 25-30 KNOTS 
WINDS APPROXIMATELY 150NM FROM THE LLCC, WITH AREAS OF 15-20 KNOT 
WINDS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CIRCULATIONS CENTER. THE SOUTH 
PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE, EXTENDING FROM THE CORAL SEA TO FRENCH 
POLYNESIA, IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 92P. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 
LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW BUT STEADY 
DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 92P. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL 
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OF INVEST 92P OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1). TO 
LOW. ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2).//
NNNN