ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/181800Z-
191800ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180751ZFEB2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 18FEB25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 30.9S 76.3E, APPROXIMATELY 1213 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, 
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING 
TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS33 PGTW 180900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.8S 128.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 127.1E, APPROXIMATELY 242 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING 
CONVECTION TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. AN 180202Z ASCAT METOP-B SCATTEROMETRY 
PASS REVEALS 15-20 KNOT WINDS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC, WITH 
STRONGER WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS APPROXIMATELY 150 NM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST 
OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 99S IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 99S, HOWEVER 
THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL 
DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-36 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL 
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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