ABIO10 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/180300Z-181800ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171952ZFEB2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 17FEB25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 30.0S 77.0E, APPROXIMATELY 1202 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, 
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING 
TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS33 PGTW 172100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.8S 
128.6E, APPROXIMATELY 167 NM NORTHWEST OF DARWIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. A 180202Z 
ASCAT METOP-B SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS 15-20 KNOT WINDS BEGINNING TO 
WRAP INTO THE LLCC, WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS APPROXIMATELY 150 
NM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
THAT INVEST 99S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE 
TO WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT 
OF INVEST 99S, HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN STRONG 
AGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD 
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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