ABPW10 PGTW 180130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/180130Z-180600ZFEB2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
1.9N 104.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 1.6N 105.3E, APPROXIMATELY 89 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE INTO 
CURVED BANDS. ANIMATED RADAR DATA SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH DEFINED CURVED BANDING FEATURES ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN SIDE. ALSO A PARTIAL 171642Z ASCAT METOP-C SCATTEROMETERY 
PASS REVEALS A WIND FIELD OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN 
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH AREAS OF 2535 KNOT WINDS, UNDER THE 
CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, FUNNELING BETWEEN 
THE CIRCULATION AND THE MALAYSIAN COAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT INVEST 93W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO 
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT. BOTH GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE NOT PICKING THIS 
AREA UP AND DO NOT SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 93W. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.0S 174.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 173.0W, APPROXIMATELY 185 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF WEAKLY DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH FLARING 
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. A 180022Z ASCAT METOP-B 
SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS A WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH WITH SPEEDS AT 
20-25 KNOTS AND A WIND FIELD TO THE SOUTH WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS. A 
SMALL AREA OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE 
AFOREMENTIONED WEAKLY DEFINED CIRCULATION, WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITH A 
BROAD TROF THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CORAL SEA ALL THE WAY TO SOUTHEAST OF 
FRENCH POLYNESIA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 98P IS 
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT PROVIDED BY 
A SPLIT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH 
THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 98P, HOWEVER ARE DIFFERING ON THE 
TIMELINES. GFS IS THE PRIMARY MODEL CURRENTLY SHOWING SIGNS OF 
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND 
GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVER EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD 
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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