ABPW10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/171800Z-180600ZFEB2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 1.9N 
104.6E, APPROXIMATELY 59 NM NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF WELL-DEFINED 
CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY 
BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE INTO CURVED BANDS. ANIMATED RADAR DATA SHOWS A 
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH DEFINED CURVED 
BANDING FEATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIDE. ALSO A PARTIAL 171642Z 
ASCAT METOP-C SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS A WIND FIELD OF 15-20 KNOT 
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH AREAS OF 25-
35 KNOT WINDS, UNDER THE CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION, FUNNELING BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION AND THE MALAYSIAN 
COAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 93W IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (27-28C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. BOTH GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS ARE NOT PICKING THIS AREA UP AND DO NOT SUPPORT CONTINUED 
DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 93W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.0S 174.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 174.4W, APPROXIMATELY 261 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NIUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). A 170856Z 
ASCAT METOP-C IMAGE REVEALS 15-20 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT MOVING FORWARD WITH VERY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
AND A GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE DAYS. GFS IS CURRENTLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL OVERALL, 
SUGGESTING GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY IN 48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
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