ABPW10 PGTW 171200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/171200Z-180600ZFEB2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.0S 
174.4W, APPROXIMATELY 261 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NIUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 
FLARING CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE 
(SPCZ). A 170856Z ASCAT METOP-C IMAGE REVEALS 15-20 KNOT WINDS IN THE 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT MOVING FORWARD WITH VERY WARM (30 
C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, AND A GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE DAYS. GFS IS CURRENTLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL OVERALL, 
SUGGESTING GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY IN 48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN 1.B.(1).//
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