ABPW10 PGTW 121200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/121200Z-130600ZFEB2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.2N 112.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 111.8E, APPROXIMATELY 307 NM 
NORTHWEST OF SPRATLY ISLAND. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT 
BUT DISORGANIZED LLCC. FURTHERMORE, A 120211Z ASCAT METOP-B 25KM IMAGE 
REVEALS ENHANCED NORTHERLY WINDS (15-20 KNOTS) FUNNELING ALONG THE 
COAST OF VIETNAM BUT NOT YET TURNING EAST AND WRAPPING INTO THE 
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (2025 KNOTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (26 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN AGREEMENT ON A 
SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO FURTHER INCREASING 
SHEAR WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 16P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
23.6S 166.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.5S 168.1E, APPROXIMATELY 118 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED 
AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH 
TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH CONVECTION THAT IS BEING HEAVILY SHEARED FROM THE WEST. A 120945Z 
ASCAT METOP-B PASS SHOWS A BELT OF EASTERLIES UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN 
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL TRANSITION WITH A DEEP LAYER OF 
DRY AIR OVERTOP THE SYSTEM, STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND BORDERLINE 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 25-26 C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 
THAT THE REMNANTS OF 16P WILL STAY NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE 
NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE GETTING SHEARED APART BY AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE 
TROUGH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. FOR 
HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH 
WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST 
AUTHORITY.THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN 2.C.(1) AS A LOW.//
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