ABIO10 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/110300Z-111800ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101952ZFEB2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110152ZFEB2025//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110251ZFEB2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 10FEB25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 24.9S 68.5E, APPROXIMATELY 684 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, 
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 110 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 102100) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 11FEB25 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.5S 92.3E, APPROXIMATELY 302 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS 
ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS33 PGTW 110300 COR) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.0S 120.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 118.8E, APPROXIMATELY 239 NM 
NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) AND DATA FROM THE 101351Z ASCAT METOP-B 25KM SHOW A 
DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH DEEP CONVECTION 
FORMING IN FLARING, RADIAL PLUMES OVER THE OBSCURED LLC. A RECENT 
OBSERVATION FROM PORT HEDLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (YPPD) INDICATES 
A WIND SHIFT FROM 190 TO 150 AND A PRESSURE FALL FROM 1002 HPA TO 999 
HPA OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THOUGH PRESSURE HAS SINCE RISEN TO 1003 
HPA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH 
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, STRONG EQUATORWARD 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 
C. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS PREDICT CYCLOGENESIS. BOTH 
THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES DEPICT A VARIETY OF POTENTIAL TRACKS THAT 
THE SYSTEM MAY TAKE, LEADING TO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE 
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER WATER OR MOVE TOWARDS LAND. ADDITIONALLY, THE 
EXTENT TO WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IS 
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE WARM WATER 
ON THE CONTINENTAL SHELF. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE 
REF C (WTXS21 PGTW 110300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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