ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/REISSUED/101800Z-111800ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100752ZFEB2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100751ZFEB2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 10FEB25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 23.0S 68.3E, APPROXIMATELY 638 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, 
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 95 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 115 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 100900) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 10FEB25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.0S 92.9E, APPROXIMATELY 257 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS 
ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS33 PGTW 100900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.3S 124.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 120.6E, APPROXIMATELY 152 NM 
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 101351 ASCAT METOP-B 25KM DEPICT DISORGANIZED A 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING, PERSISTENT CONVECTION 
BUILDING OVER THE CENTER OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. DETERMINISTIC (GFS, ECMWF, 
NAVGEM) AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL MODEL DEVELOPMENT AS THE 
INVEST TRACKS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AUSTRALIAN COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 
TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 
28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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