ABPW10 PGTW 101930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/101930Z-110600ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101921ZFEB2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
20.6S 158.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.9S 160.7E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM 
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS DEEP RADIAL PLUMES OF DEEP CONVECTION 
BUILDING OVER THE OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 101340Z 89GHZ 
GPM GMI IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED LLC WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO 
THE NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15-20 KNOTS, 
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 26-
27C. 95P IS ALONG THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE, RESULTING IN AN 
ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT THE SYSTEM ACQUIRES 
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS PRIOR TO DEVELOPING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DUE TO COOLER THAN 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA. 
AS FOR DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS, GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE BRIEF 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, MODELS 
ALSO PORTRAY 95P SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING 
DEVELOPMENT, SO THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM 
TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 101930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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