ABIO10 PGTW 101930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/101930Z-110600ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100752ZFEB2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100751ZFEB2025//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101921ZFEB2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 10FEB25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 23.0S 68.3E, APPROXIMATELY 638 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, 
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 95 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 115 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 100900) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 10FEB25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.0S 92.9E, APPROXIMATELY 257 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS 
ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS33 PGTW 100900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
20.6S 158.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.9S 160.7E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM 
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 101351 ASCAT METOP-B 25KM DEPICT 
DISORGANIZED A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING, PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15-20 KNOTS, GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. 
DETERMINISTIC (GFS, ECMWF, NAVGEM) AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE 
GRADUAL MODEL DEVELOPMENT AS THE INVEST TRACKS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE 
AUSTRALIAN COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPS21 PGTW 101930) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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