ABPW10 PGTW 091900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/091900Z-100600ZFEB2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.9S 151.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.1S 153.2E, APPROXIMATELY 443 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF ROTATION WITH CYCLING 
CONVECTION. A 091742Z METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS A 25-30 
KNOT ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD APPROXIMATELY 150NM NORTH OF THE ROTATION, 
WITH 15-20 KNOTS OF WINDS CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 95P IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND 
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 
THE SEEMINGLY QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF 95P, WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES 
IN AGREEMENT AS WELL WITH THE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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