ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/091800Z-101800ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090752ZFEB2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090751ZFEB2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 09FEB25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 20.6S 70.0E, APPROXIMATELY 715 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, 
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS GUSTING TO 130 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 090900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 09FEB25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 15.1S 93.8E, APPROXIMATELY 251 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, 
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS33 PGTW 090900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.3S 124.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 123.2E, APPROXIMATELY 166 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF ROTATION WITH DEEP CYCLING CONVECTION 
BUILDING OVER THE CENTER, LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHWEST 
AUSTRALIA. THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS QUITE SMALL AND OFFSHORE BUT THE 
LARGER ASSOCIATED ROTATION STRADDLES THE COASTLINE PER SURFACE WIND 
OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE REGION. A 080113Z PARTIAL ASCAT METOP-B 
SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS A WIND FIELD OF 20 KNOTS IN THE NORTHEAST 
QUADRANT, WITH AREAS OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 96S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT INVEST 96S WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND 
TRACK ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST. HOWEVER, 
GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE PROGRESSION AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF 
96S. ECMWF IS CURRENTLY THE PRIMARY MODEL INDICATING DEVELOPMENT 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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