ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/081800Z-091800ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080752ZFEB2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080751ZFEB2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 08FEB25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 20.4S 73.4E, APPROXIMATELY 800 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD 
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 120 KNOTS GUSTING TO 145 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 080900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 08FEB25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 15.8S 95.9E, APPROXIMATELY 224 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS 
ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
65 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS33 PGTW 080900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.2S 125.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 124.8E, APPROXIMATELY 212 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF ROTATION WITH DEEP CYCLING CONVECTION 
BUILDING OVER THE CENTER, LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHWEST 
AUSTRALIA. THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS QUITE SMALL AND OFFSHORE BUT THE 
LARGER ASSOCIATED ROTATION STRADDLES THE COASTLINE PER SURFACE WIND 
OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE REGION. A 080113Z PARTIAL ASCAT METOP-B 
SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS A WIND FIELD OF 20 KNOTS IN THE NORTHEAST 
QUADRANT, WITH AREAS OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 96S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT INVEST 96S WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND 
TRACK ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST. HOWEVER, 
GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE PROGRESSION AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF 
96S. ECMWF IS CURRENTLY THE PRIMARY MODEL INDICATING DEVELOPMENT 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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