ABIO10 PGTW 080700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/080700Z-081800ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071951ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071951ZFEB2025//
NARR/REFS A AND A ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 07FEB25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 20.1S 75.9E, APPROXIMATELY 805 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 130 KNOTS GUSTING TO 160 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 072100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 07FEB25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 15.8S 96.9E, APPROXIMATELY 216 NM SOUTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, AND 
HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTXS33 PGTW 072100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.2S 125.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 125.4E, APPROXIMATELY 107 NM 
EAST OF BROWSE ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF ROTATION WITH DEEP CYCLING CONVECTION 
BUILDING OVER THE CENTER, LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. 
THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS QUITE SMALL AND OFFSHORE BUT THE LARGER 
ASSOCIATED ROTATION STRADDLES THE COASTLINE PER SURFACE WIND 
OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE REGION. A 080113Z PARTIAL ASCAT METOP-B 
SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS A WIND FIELD OF 20 KNOTS IN THE NORTHEAST 
QUADRANT, WITH AREAS OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 96S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 
LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S 
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND TRACK ROUGHLY 
PARALLEL TO THE NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS 
DISAGREE ON THE PROGRESSION AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF 96S. ECMWF IS 
CURRENTLY THE PRIMARY MODEL INDICATING DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN 2.B(1) TO MEDIUM //
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