ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZFEB2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
22.4S 163.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.7S 170.9E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY 
CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING 
BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 92P WITH A HIGHLY ELONGATED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND CONVECTION STREAMING OFF TO THE 
SOUTHEAST. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) BECAME STRETCHED OUT AS IT 
PASSED SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA. A 062215Z ASCAT METOP-C IMAGE REVEALS 
THAT THE ELONGATED AND ASYMMETRICAL LLC HAS SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTHEAST 
OF NEW CALEDONIA, WITH A 35-KNOT WIND FIELD CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH 
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 25-30 KNOTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARMISH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 26-27 C. 
TROPICAL TRANSITION OF THE SYSTEM IS ANALYZED TO BE UNLIKELY. 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE WEAK MODEL DEVELOPMENT, 
PORTRAYING THE CIRCULATION CONTINUING TO ELONGATE WITHIN THE SOUTH 
PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ) ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK. FOR HAZARDS AND 
WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND 
SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
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