WTPS22 PGTW 061200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051121ZFEB2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 051130). THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.5S 161.5E IS NOW 
LOCATED NEAR 22.1S 162.7E, APPROXIMATELY 209 NM WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW 
CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN 
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 30-40 
KNOTS, MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARMISH SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OF 26-27 C. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE 
CIRCULATION CONTINUING TO ELONGATE WITH POSSIBLE GALE-FORCE WINDS 
OCCURRING WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE 
AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, AS CURRENT PHASE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE 
SYSTEM IS ALREADY STARTING THE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO 
LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.//
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